Statistical Analysis of The Incidence of Hiv/Aids Pandemic in Dekina Local Government, Area of Kogi State (2018-2022)

Abstract

HIV/AIDS remained a chronic viral infection that weakens the immune system, leading to a variety of health complications and increased susceptibility to other infections and diseases. This research work is focused on the Statistical analysis of the incidence of the HIV/AIDS Pandemic in the Dekina Local Government Area of Kogi state (2018 to 2022). The study employed statistical methods, including the T-test and time series analysis, using independent sample t-tests and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The analysis was carried out using Excel and R (programming). The ARIMA model (3,1,1) was found to be the model that best fit for analysing the trend of HIV/AIDS cases in Dekina. The study provided a forecast plot that shows the behaviours of the trend from 2018 to 2022 and the forecasted years 2023 to 2025. It is observed that the HIV/AIDS in Dekina shows that there’s a trend in the data analysed. However, the forecast plot reveals that there is a downward trend at a point in time. The model diagnosis check shows that the model is adequate for prediction since the p-value (0.5936) is greater than the level of significance (0.05). This implies that the model is not statistically significant. This indicates that the model is perfectly suited for the analysis, and it is a white noise model.